Kalshi and Polymarket prices are showing up in election coverage on Election Day, while the companies fight state regulators in federal court.
Polls are still open across the country, and part of today’s coverage includes prices from Kalshi and Polymarket, the two platforms where people trade on who will win. CNN has an exclusive deal to show Kalshi’s probabilities on air and online. CBS News added Kalshi data to its midterm coverage this fall, and Kalshi already has partnerships with CNBC, The Associated Press and Fox News Media.
The money behind those prices is large. An analysis of trading through Sept. 30 found more than $220 million bet on congressional races at Kalshi and Polymarket, more than double the $92 million bet in the 2024 cycle. A separate CNN analysis in late September put trading on all 2026 election markets above $750 million. The first figure counts congressional races only and the second counts every election market, so the two cannot be added or compared directly.
Kalshi says its election markets are certified by the CFTC and legal. The company also polices its own users. In April it suspended three candidates for five years for betting on their own races and fined them more than $7,500 combined.
Wisconsin’s elections commission has told voters they cannot place a bet on an election in which they cast a ballot, and warned that a ballot could be disqualified. Kalshi calls that advisory illegal and a form of voter suppression. A survey of about 4,500 Americans taken Sept. 30 to Oct. 5 found that about 69 percent of Democrats and 61 percent of Republicans do not support using prediction markets to bet on election results.
The courts
The federal appeals courts have split on Kalshi’s sports contracts. The Third Circuit ruled for Kalshi 2 to 1 in April, finding that federal law likely overrides state gambling law for contracts on a CFTC-licensed exchange. The Ninth Circuit ruled against Kalshi on Aug. 28 and let Nevada enforce its gaming law. In September, a unanimous Sixth Circuit panel also ruled against Kalshi, clearing Ohio and Tennessee to enforce their laws, and said Kalshi had not shown its contracts meet the legal definition of a swap. Kalshi’s Maryland appeal is still pending in the Fourth Circuit.
New Jersey asked the Supreme Court on Sept. 2 to review the Third Circuit’s decision. As of the latest reports, the Court had not said whether it will take the case. Prediction market operators face disputes with dozens of states and tribal entities, according to a gambling-industry report.
The CFTC takes the position that its authority over these markets is exclusive. In April it sued Illinois, Connecticut and Arizona to stop state enforcement.
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