Could Texas Elect a Democratic Senator for the First Time Since 1988?

No Democrat has won a Texas Senate election since 1988, and this year’s race between Democratic state Rep. James Talarico and Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton is close enough to put that streak in question. Early voting began Oct. 19, and Election Day is Nov. 3.

A Dead Heat in the Polls

A Marist poll taken Oct. 8 to 11 put Talarico at 47% and Paxton at 45% among likely voters, with a margin of error of 4.9 points. An Emerson College poll for Nexstar, taken Oct. 17 to 19, showed Talarico at 48% and Paxton at 46%, with a margin of 3.1 points.

A Fox News poll released Oct. 21 had the two tied at 49%. In September, the same poll had Talarico ahead, 51% to 49%. The gaps are small enough that the polls cannot say who leads.

Paxton’s Legal History

Paxton, the state’s attorney general, beat Sen. John Cornyn in the May Republican runoff with President Trump’s backing.

Paxton was indicted in 2015 on securities fraud charges. In 2024 he agreed to a pretrial diversion program that required 100 hours of community service and 15 hours of legal ethics training. He also agreed to pay about $300,000 to the alleged victims, and the case was dismissed in June 2025. His attorney said the agreement was neither a plea bargain nor an admission of guilt.

In 2023, the Republican-led Texas House impeached him on 16 articles that included corruption and bribery allegations tied to a donor, Nate Paul, and claims that grew out of complaints by former senior aides. The Senate acquitted him on all 16 articles on Sept. 16, 2023.

Talarico’s Faith Comments

Talarico, a state representative from Austin, has faced scrutiny over past remarks on religion and gender. In 2021, during a Texas House debate over a bill on transgender athletes, he said on the floor that “God is non-binary.” In September, he said he had “missed the mark on some of my past statements,” and he named that one.

At a CNN town hall on Oct. 14, Talarico said he “was being provocative” and acknowledged doing it “maybe in an annoying way.” He argued that God cannot be defined by human categories.

A 2021 podcast interview that resurfaced in June has him saying, “I always think of myself as a Christian who hates Christianity.” In the same interview he said he keeps returning to the faith because he finds no other political philosophy as radical as the teachings of “that barefoot Rabbi.” His spokesperson has said Talarico does not hate Christianity.

At the Republican Party of Texas convention in June, Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick said that “if he campaigns against God as he’s been doing, he’s going to Hell, for sure.” Talarico answered with a social media post: “Love feels like blasphemy when you worship power.”

Musk’s Money

Campaign finance records show Elon Musk gave $75 million to the Senate Leadership Fund on Sept. 9 and $83 million about two weeks later. The fund passed each gift to a Texas PAC the next day, and that PAC has reported more than $100 million in spending to support Paxton and oppose Talarico. Musk has also criticized Talarico on X.

Debates and the Trail

No face-to-face debate has been scheduled. Talarico has accepted four debate invitations from news organizations and has challenged Paxton to a Fox News debate. Paxton has not accepted any, though he has said he would consider one “under the right conditions.”

At an Oct. 7 rally in San Antonio, Trump criticized Talarico for being off the campaign trail and called for a debate. Talarico had disclosed a case of the flu on Sept. 30 and appeared at the CNN town hall two weeks later.

What Comes Next

Voters will weigh Paxton’s legal history against Talarico’s past statements and decide whether Texas extends a streak of nearly four decades without a Democratic Senate winner.

Sources:

•      Texas Tribune, “Here’s how Texas voted in every U.S. Senate election since 1961” (Nov. 5, 2018)

•      Marist Poll, “2026 Midterm Elections in Texas, October 2026” (Oct. 2026)

•      Emerson College Polling, “Texas 2026 Poll: Toss-Up U.S. Senate Race” (Oct. 2026)

•      Fox 7 Austin, “Texas Senate race: Talarico, Paxton tied in new poll as debate disagreement continues” (Oct. 22, 2026)

•      Associated Press via WABE, “Paxton dominates Cornyn in Texas US Senate runoff” (May 2026)

•      Fox 7 Austin, “Ken Paxton’s felony case dismissed after completing pretrial diversion program” (June 2025)

•      Texas Tribune, “Ken Paxton acquitted in impeachment trial” (Sept. 16, 2023)

•      Fox News, Talarico on “God is non-binary” and past statements (Sept. 2026)

•      Fox News, Talarico at CNN town hall (Oct. 15, 2026)

•      Fox News, Talarico “hates Christianity” interview (June 23, 2026)

•      High Plains Public Radio, “Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick says James Talarico will ‘go to hell’ for his view of the Bible” (June 17, 2026)

•      CBS News, Elon Musk midterm donations and Ken Paxton (Oct. 2026)

•      KSAT, “In attacking Talarico for campaign absence, Trump calls for debate that Paxton has avoided” (Oct. 8, 2026)