A July poll by Texas Public Opinion Research found Democrat James Talarico ahead 45% to 40% among 1,048 likely voters, with 14% undecided and a margin of error of plus or minus 3.4 points. The survey was conducted July 15–17.
Talarico leads among independents (43%–23%), non-college voters (45%–36%), Latinos (66%–20%), and Black voters (71%–8%), while Paxton leads among Republicans and white voters (53%–33%). The race has tightened since spring but shows Talarico’s widest edge since Paxton’s May nomination win.
Republicans, including Gov. Greg Abbott, have attacked Talarico’s faith comments from a podcast. Paxton faces scrutiny from past scandals, including his 2023 impeachment and acquittal.