A July poll by Texas Public Opinion Research found Democrat James Talarico ahead 45% to 40% among 1,048 likely voters, with 14% undecided and a margin of error of plus or minus 3.4 points. The survey was conducted July 15–17.
Talarico leads among independents (43%–23%), non-college voters (45%–36%), Latinos (66%–20%), and Black voters (71%–8%), while Paxton leads among Republicans and white voters (53%–33%). The race has tightened since spring but shows Talarico’s widest edge since Paxton’s May nomination win.
Republicans, including Gov. Greg Abbott, have attacked Talarico’s faith comments from a podcast. Paxton faces scrutiny from past scandals, including his 2023 impeachment and acquittal.
No way this guy gets elected in Texas.
— Greg Abbott (@GregAbbott_TX) July 28, 2026
He says he's a Christian who hates Christianity.
Says ‘Islamic Mystics’ shaped his faith.
The only mystery is why he thinks the rest of Texas is like Austin.https://t.co/vvwALVUOYj
Other races, including governor, remain close, with high undecided numbers pointing to volatility as early voting begins October 19.
Other races, including governor, remain close, with high undecided numbers pointing to volatility as early voting begins October 19.
Full details and crosstabs are available via the Texas Tribune report.