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Wisconsin Primary: The Numbers Behind the “Upset”

Crowley and Hong agreed on more than the "moderate beats socialist" headline suggests — the real split was over data centers and how to cut property taxes.

By Lynn Matthews - August 12, 2026
Wisconsin Primary: The Numbers Behind the “Upset”

Milwaukee County Executive David Crowley narrowly defeated state Rep. Francesca Hong in Tuesday’s Democratic primary for governor of Wisconsin, winning by roughly 3,000 votes. Crowley took 39.8 percent to Hong’s 39.4 percent, according to NBC News tallies with 98 percent of the expected vote counted. Decision Desk HQ called the race in the early hours of August 12.

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Laura Loomer on X

Crowley, the establishment-backed Democrat endorsed by outgoing Gov. Tony Evers, will face Republican U.S. Rep. Tom Tiffany in November. Tiffany, who carries President Donald Trump’s endorsement, defeated Andy Manske decisively in the Republican primary, according to Up North News. Hong, a Madison assembly member and member of the Democratic Socialists of America, had led every public poll by double digits heading into the primary — as recently as late July she held roughly a 2-to-1 advantage over Crowley in the Marquette Law School poll.

On paper, the result looks like a moderate beating a democratic socialist. The candidates’ actual platforms tell a more complicated story.

Where they agreed

Crowley and Hong’s platforms overlapped on several major planks. Both campaigns propose expanding BadgerCare into a public option that would let people above the Medicaid income ceiling buy in, according to the Wisconsin Examiner’s voter guide. Both back universal childcare — Crowley’s “Badger Basics” plan would cap costs at 7 percent of household income for children under five, while Hong has said she would tap the state’s rainy day fund if necessary to fund a similar guarantee. On education, Crowley wants to restore the state’s historical commitment to funding two-thirds of public school costs; Hong’s platform cites 90 percent reimbursement for special education.

Where they didn’t

The real daylight between the two candidates showed up on data centers and taxes. At a June debate, Hong was the only Democrat in the six-candidate field to back a one-year moratorium on new data center construction — every other candidate, including Crowley, held up a thumbs-down. Crowley’s platform instead calls for “restrictions” on data centers and AI, not a construction pause, according to Wisconsin Examiner.

On taxes, Hong’s “Tax the Super-Rich” plan would shift school funding away from property taxes and onto a new income-tax bracket for high earners, which her campaign and Channel 3000 estimate would cut a typical property tax bill by roughly 41 to 44 percent. Crowley has taken a different approach: he backs an across-the-board property tax decrease and has said he would have signed the tax relief deal Evers negotiated with Republicans, while also calling for higher taxes on residents earning $1 million or more, per FOX6 Milwaukee.

What the primary showed

Crowley’s win reversed a string of recent primary victories for the party’s progressive wing in Michigan, New York and Colorado, and it came after he briefly dropped out of the race in July before reentering with Evers’ backing, according to NBC News. Hong, meanwhile, faced late scrutiny over past social media posts and outside spending from Republican-aligned groups that Democrats argued was designed to boost her as the more beatable general-election opponent.

Official statewide vote totals and turnout figures for Tuesday’s primary won’t be certified until the Wisconsin Elections Commission’s Board of Canvassers meets Aug. 18. Until then, all vote totals — including the margin above — reflect unofficial reporting from the Associated Press and Decision Desk HQ.

Wisconsin remains a toss-up state, and independents, not primary voters, will decide the governor’s race in November.

Sources:

NBC News — nbcnews.com/politics/2026-election/francesca-hong-david-crowley-democratic-primary-wisconsin-governor-rcna592056

Up North News — upnorthnewswi.com/news/politics/wisconsin-2026-primary-results

Wisconsin Examiner (voter guide) — wisconsinexaminer.com/voter-guides/contests/2026-democratic-primary-governor

Wisconsin Examiner (Crowley profile) — wisconsinexaminer.com/2026/06/26/crowley-says-he-has-the-experience-and-the-receipts-to-be-wisconsins-next-governor

Crowley for Wisconsin, “Badger Basics” — crowleyforwi.com/badger-basics

Francesca Hong for Governor — francescahong.com/about

Urban Milwaukee — urbanmilwaukee.com/2026/07/20/francesca-hongs-policy-on-data-centers-is-unique

Channel 3000 — channel3000.com/news/race-for-governor-primary-candidate-stances

FOX6 Milwaukee — fox6now.com/news/wisconsin-governor-race-democratic-candidates-081126

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